2020 NFL Week 12 Game-By-Game Model Projections

Week 11 had some great matchups on slate, and it delivered.

Not only were some of the day games tremendous, including two overtime games, but the primetime games were fantastic. Personally, I believe the Chiefs-Raiders game on Sunday Night Football was the game of the year, while Cardinals-Seahawks and Bucs-Rams also came down to the wire!

With that, let us examine my model’s projections for every game in the Week 12 slate. My model is able to calculate a team’s chances of winning by using Pro Football Focus grades and coaching adjustments, and from there, calculating the gap between the two teams before covering it into a win probability. In the past, that win probability was used to project a spread, and from there, it served as more a model to pick against the spread.

However, this was never my goal with the model. Rather, I want it to be able to project the estimated margin of victory by each team. Luckily, I have now transformed my model to calculate how much better a team is than average on a neutral field, and from there, those totals can be used to project how much one team will beat another by. Now, I can provide reasonable expectations for you all on how a game should turn out.

If you had been interested in the betting aspect of this model, however, fret not! You can still utilize the difference in margin of victory and spread to find the best values from a spread perspective, while my model now projects recommended money lines and over/under totals. After we go through all the games, I will go over the model’s top bets of the week, so you will want to stick around until the end!

Also, home-field advantage had not been a factor previously, but due to recent results, it is now worth about 0.59 points. This will factor into the projections and hopefully will yield even better projections!

With that addressed, let us get to the Week 12 slate! Thanksgiving is upon us, which means three Thursday games! Meanwhile, some of the Sunday games are simply fantastic.

NOTE: Model will be updated with injury updates, power ratings calculated with injuries in mind

*Odds via Vegas Insider


Houston Texans (3-7, 24th) at Detroit Lions (4-6, 27th)

Photo Cred: Texans Wire

Texans Win Probability: 54.16775066%

The Texans may not be winning many games, but Deshaun Watson has quietly ascended himself into the elite tier of quarterbacks. Not only does he currently have a Pro Football Focus grade over 90 (90.8), but he also has a 6.68% big-time throw rate and only a 1.67% turnover-worthy play rate. He has reduced his pressure rate significantly, and has been excellent when it comes to throwing the ball down the field to his speedy playmakers. I am certainly not expecting the Lions defense to provide any sort of resistance.

Lions Win Probability: 45.83224934%

Luckily for the Lions, the Texans defense is even worse. Although he hasn’t performed as well as he did also season, Matthew Stafford has an aggressive play style and remains an above-average quarterback, so he should be able to exploit Houston’s warts in the secondary. Overall, both of these teams are very similar, meaning this is a winnable game for Detroit.

Projected Winner: HOU by 1.04

Projected Spread: HOU (-1.38)

Spread: HOU (-3)

Moneyline Value: DET

Over/Under Total Projection: 52.65 (Real O/U= 51.5)

I think this will be a very close game with a lot of points scored; these two teams are off roughly the same level. I’d definitely side with the better quarterback, but it’s also worth noting that the Texans are 3-7 for a reason; they haven’t leveraged that quarterback advantage into wins in the past. Can the Lions break their four-game Thanksgiving losing streak? We’ll have to wait and see!

Washington (3-7, 22nd) at Dallas Cowboys (3-7, 26th)

Photo Cred: Sportsnaut

Washington Win Probability: 57,38012413%

Don’t look now, but since going back to Alex Smith as their staring quarterback, the Washington Football Team is performing well. Smith is averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt, and that number increases tremendously if you take away his mid-week appearance in Week 7 against the Rams. He has continued to take care of the football, but is also producing big-time throws at a 3.33% rate, which is about average, but more than you’d expect for more of a conservative quarterback. Superstar receiver Terry McLaurin continues to produce at a high level, and the same can be said about their defense; they rank 7th in pass-rush grade, 4th in coverage grade, and 7th in yards/play allowed.

Cowboys Win Probability: 42.61987587%

Coming off of their bye, the Cowboys were a touchdown underdog against the Vikings, but that didn’t stop them from upsetting Minnesota. With Andy Dalton back healthy, they looked like the team they were supposed to be when Dak Prescott went down with a season-ending injury; Dalton distributed the ball to one of the top receiving corps in the NFL, and they were able to score 31 points as a result. Although Washington has McLaurin, the Cowboys have a deeper array of playmakers and have a pass rush that could give Smith some problems.

Projected Winner: WSH by 2.16

Projected Spread: WSH (-2.44)

Spread: DAL (-3)

Moneyline Value: WSH

Over/Under Total Projection: 45.84 (Real O/U= 46.5)

These two teams have similar offenses in my opinion, yet Washington is able to provide far more resistance on the defensive side of the ball. I don’t know why we shouldn’t see Washington as the best team in the NFC East right now, as my model almost has them not being a bottom-ten team. The quarterback upgrade from Kyle Allen to Smith has been significant, to say the least, and that had been what was holding them back. Look for them to come away with a major road victory, which could put them on path to winning their division.

Baltimore Ravens (6-4, 10th) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0, 3rd)

Photo Cred: Steelers Wire-USA Today

Ravens Win Probability: 42.75604539%

If the season ended today, the Ravens would miss the playoffs. Luckily for them, the season doesn’t end today, and they’re still a very talented team on both sides of the ball. Lamar Jackson remains the better quarterback in this matchup, while they still have star talent with tight end Mark Andrews and deep threat Marquise Brown. The last time these two teams played, Baltimore outgained Pittsburgh by 200+ yards; they cannot be discounted in this game.

Steelers Win Probability: 57.24395461%

The Steelers are 10-0, so they have to be doing something right! Defense doesn’t win championships, but it certainly helps that they may have the best pass rush, secondary, AND run defense in the NFL. The Ravens offensive line isn’t in a good place right now, so I think Pittsburgh could definitely exploit them. Meanwhile, Baltimore couldn’t handle the Titans’ receivers after the catch last week, so it’s easy to see the likes of Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool doing damage.

Projected Winner: PIT by 3.96

Projected Spread: PIT (-2.39)

Spread: PIT (-5.5)

Moneyline Value: BAL

Over/Under Total Projection: 48.44 (Real O/U= 44.5)

The Steelers right now are a better team than the Ravens, so they should win. Baltimore currently looks like a shell of their former selves, but then again, they could flip the switch at any moment. In the end, I think this is a game that comes down to the wire, with Pittsburgh pulling through, and any further line movement could increase the value of this spread; you certainly couldn’t back the Steelers.

The real value here is on the over/under total. When these two teams faced off in Week 8, 52 combined points were scored. In the end, good defenses will always be overvalued, and both teams have enough playmakers to go over a very modest over/under total. Plus, betting the over is always fun- you get to root for points and offense, which is much better than rooting against offensive stars!


Las Vegas Raiders (6-4, 14th) at Atlanta Falcons (3-7, 15th)

Photo Cred: The Mercury News

Raiders Win Probability: 48.36893267%

I’m not sure any team has had a more impressing loss than the Raiders had last week against the Chiefs. Derek Carr, based on Pro Football Focus grade, had the best performance by a quarterback this season, and right now, the Raiders have one of the top offenses in the NFL. They have a lot of speed, a quarterback playing at a very high level, and a tremendous play-caller in Jon Gruden. When that is the case, as evidenced last week, you can beat any team.

Falcons Win Probability: 51.63106733%

Just when you thought it couldn’t get worse for the Falcons, they managed to lose to the Saints in Taysom Hill’s debut. At this point, I probably sound like a broken record: they are a talented team who are a couple collapses away from being in the NFC wildcard mix. Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, and Julio Jones should be able to produce tremendously against a weak Raiders defense.

Projected Winner: ATL by 0.52

Projected Spread: ATL (-0.54)

Spread: LV (-3)

Moneyline Value: ATL

Over/Under Total Projection: 53.5 (Real O/U= 55.5)

This game opened as a pick-em, but due to narratives surrounding how these two teams performed on Sunday, this line has shifted towards Las Vegas’ side. Both teams have productive quarterbacks and playmakers on offense, and the defense that can be less of a liability probably comes out on top. Thus, this should probably be closer to a pick-em, though how can you have any faith in the Falcons?

Los Angeles Chargers (3-7, 21st) at Buffalo Bills (7-3, 9th)

Photo Cred: Sharp Football Analysis

Chargers Win Probability: 38.21474401%

The Chargers may be 3-7, yet rookie quarterback Justin Herbert continues to amaze. Yes, he is producing chunk plays (5.1% big-time throw rate), but he is also reducing his mistakes much better than you’d expect from a rookie (1.94% turnover-worthy play rate). He is leading a very explosive offense throwing the ball to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, while their defense isn’t shabby either. All told, as you’d expect from their -13 point differential despite a tough schedule, they are far better than their record would indicate.

Bills Win Probability: 61.78525599%

Fresh off of their bye, the Bills will look to continue to play at a very high level. Josh Allen is Pro Football Focus’ 8th-ranked quarterback this season, and he has been put in a tremendous situation to produce. Paired with one of the top receiving corps in the NFL, he is being allowed to pass at a high frequency on early downs, including on play-action looks. Head coach Sean McDermott’s defense, meanwhile, ought to give Herbert some trouble, and overall, Buffalo has more talent and a significant coaching advantage.

Projected Winner: BUF by 5.26

Projected Spread: BUF (-3.89)

Spread: BUF (-5.5)

Moneyline Value: LAC

Over/Under Total Projection: 49.97 (Real O/U= 53.5)

Allen and Herbert are exciting young quarterbacks with very similar styles of play, so this will be a fun game to watch! In the end, the Bills are an aggressive team with no roster hole, while the Chargers are likely to continue to be ultra-conservative, and just have more weak links. Essentially, Los Angeles is Buffalo, expect with much worse coaching and less roster depth. Thus, the current spread of BUF (-5.5) is very accurate.

New York Giants (3-7, 29th) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-7-1, 30th)

Photo Cred: GMEN HQ

Giants Win Probability: 64.97886393%

They started the season terribly, but the Giants have played well recently! Overall, they have won three of their last five games, with the two losses in that span coming by a combined three points. With a 91.2 overall grade from a clean pocket, Daniel Jones has quietly been fabulous this season, and the return of receiver Sterling Shepard has appeared to allow the offense to make a breakthrough. Meanwhile, although they lack talent in the secondary, they’ve been able to be a middle-of-the-pack defense; a lot of credit has to go to first-year defensive coordinator Patrick Graham.

Bengals Win Probability: 35.02113607%

Without Joe Burrow, there isn’t a lot to be excited about with the Bengals, outside of a high draft pick. Perhaps with a talented receiving corps they can pull off an upset? Really, though, Cincinnati’s main chances of winning this game stem from the Giants committing turnovers, which certainly is plausible.

Projected Winner: NYG by 1.71

Projected Spread: NYG (-4.94)

Spread: NYG (-5.5)

Moneyline Value: CIN

Over/Under Total Projection: 43.05 (Real O/U= 42.5)

The Giants have a good chance of winning this game, and based on win probability, the current spread would appear to be fair. However, these are the 29th and 30th rated teams by my model, meaning that expecting New York to cover as a 5.5-point favorite is probably not wise. Burrow’s injury is really unfortunate for a lot of reasons, but it certainly shrinks any intrigue there was with this game, unfortunately.

Tennessee Titans (7-3, 6th) at Indianapolis Colts (7-3, 8th)

Photo Cred: Colts Wire-USA Today

Titans Win Probability: 50.12957479%

In my opinion, the public is undervaluing the Titans. They currently rank third in expected points added/play this season, meaning that they have one of the top offenses in the NFL. Receivers AJ Brown and Corey Davis have been tremendous this season, and overall, they are built to produce explosive plays. Sure, Indianapolis doesn’t allow many plays over the top, but that’s not where Tennessee’s big plays come from; their offense is filled with athletes that are nearly impossible to tackle. Plus, look for their defense, which ranks last in third-down conversion rate allowed, to regress positively with how they’ve graded in coverage this season.

Colts Win Probability: 49.87042521%

After beating the Titans in Week 10 and then beating the Packers, the Colts have multiple impressive victories on their ledger. Phillip Rivers is coming off of his best game of the season, while the spark provided by rookie receiver Michael Pittman Jr. has been huge for them. With a very well-rounded roster and a coaching staff that leverage several advantage possible when it comes to going for it on fourth downs, they are the type of stable organization that is difficult to defeat.

Projected Winner: TEN by 0.55

Projected Spread: TEN (-0.04)

Spread: IND (-3.5)

Moneyline Value: TEN

Over/Under Total Projection: 51.11 (Real O/U= 51)

The Colts did beat the Titans in primetime just two weeks ago, but that was mainly due to special teams. Tennessee’s offense is one that I’m going to trust much more; they have a lot of explosiveness, whereas Indianapolis is far more methodical. Indianapolis is coached very well, but I agree with my model that the Titans, with more impact talent, get revenge in this matchup and pick up a huge victory; a loss would put them in a major hole in the AFC South race.

Cleveland Browns (7-3, 13th) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9, 31st)

Photo Cred: USA Today Sportsbook Wire

Browns Win Probability: 82.87167233%

The Browns may not be winning in a flashy matter, but I think any of their fans are complaining. Finally, the additions of head coach Kevin Stefanski and general manager Andrew Berry have brought stability and competency to the organization, and it is showing up on the football field. Although Baker Mayfield hasn’t played great this, he is producing big plays at a high rate, so they have the explosive passing attack needed to complement a rushing attack that has been consistently productive (yes we’re talking about running games). I expect them to have their way against the Jaguars, who have a lot of defensive injuries and do not have much talent anyways.

Jaguars Win Probability 17:12832767%

Jake Luton clearly wasn’t the answer for the Jaguars, so now Mike Glennon will start under center for them. He gives them some sort of competency under center, and since Cleveland’s passing attack is inconsistent, to say the least, perhaps they can pull off an upset.

Projected Winner: CLE by 9.04

Projected Spread: CLE (-10.85)

Spread: CLE (-6.5)

Moneyline Value: CLE

Over/Under Total Projection: 48.5 (Real O/U= 49)

Since they aren’t a flashy team, it appears the Browns are being undervalued by the betting markets, or the Jaguars aren’t seen as the bottom-feeder they are. Look for Cleveland to win by multiple scores in a “meh” game, and if you have Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt on your fantasy team, start them!

Carolina Panthers (4-7, 28th) at Minnesota Vikings (4-6, 11th)

Photo Cred: Vikings Wire- USA Today

Panthers Win Probability: 28.16579555%

Even without Teddy Bridgewater, the Panthers were able to pick up a decisive victory against the Lions last Sunday. Their abundance of playmakers should produce against the Vikings’ lackluster group of cornerbacks, and even if they aren’t super talented, they have continued to be competitive and are extremely well-coached. As I say every week, offensive coordinator Joe Brady is a mastermind and should be a premier head-coaching candidate this offseason.

Vikings Win Probability: 71.83420445%

The Vikings are a very difficult team to get a read on this season. Kirk Cousins is playing at an exceptionally high level, and right now, they have by far the top-graded receiving corps and rushing attack in the NFL; they rank 1st in yards/play for a reason. Heck, even their defense had made some strides in recent weeks! An offense with this much talent and a defense coached by Mike Zimmer should combine to be one of the premier teams in the NFC, and at some point, they should see their overall production translate to more wins.

Projected Winner: MIN by 7.9

Projected Spread: MIN (-7.21)

Spread: MIN (-4)

Moneyline Value: MIN

Over/Under Total Projection: 52.35 (Real O/U= 48.5)

Since the Vikings can’t seem to put away games, while the Panthers have overachieved, it isn’t surprising that the spread is lower than my models indicate it should be. I don’t see Carolina stopping Minnesota’s offense, nor do I believe that these teams are within a touchdown of one another.

With this game featuring two struggling secondaries and two explosive receiving corps, there is a lot of value on the over on the total projection. Minnesota could put up 30 points on its own, while Carolina’s offense ranks 11th in yards/play. Especially in a dome, expect there to be plenty of points scored.

Arizona Cardinals (6-4, 16th) at New England Patriots (4-6,18th)

Photo Cred: Seahawks.com

Cardinals Win Probability: 49.00355648%

Ten weeks through the season, the Cardinals are in position to make the playoffs, which would certainly qualify as a successful season for them. Kyler Murray, particularly as a rusher, has improved greatly in his sophomore season; Arizona is averaging 0.07 expected points added per rush attempt. I could see his mobility being an issue for Bill Belichick’s defense, which relies a lot on man-coverage looks and lacks athleticism.

Patriots Win Probability: 50.99644352%

Speaking of offenses with a mobile quarterback and productive rushing offense, the Patriots are much better when it comes to scoring points than they get credit for. Cam Newton (79.4 overall grade) has played very well this season, and New England’s passing attack has made serious gains in recent weeks. Plus, the coaching advantage certainly lies with the Patriots, though that is almost always the case.

Projected Winner: NE by 0.26

Projected Spread: NE (-0.33)

Spread: ARI (-2.5)

Moneyline Value: NE

Over/Under Total Projection: 51.09 (Real O/U= 49.5)

The Cardinals have generally been one of the more consistently overvalued teams in the public, as they’re a young, exciting team that has benefitted from an easy schedule. Despite said schedule, they’re a Hail Mary and a different overtime outcome away from having a losing record, and I wouldn’t trust them as a road favorite in New England. I think my model may be on to something here….

Miami Dolphins (6-4, 23rd) at New York Jets (0-10, 32nd)

Photo Cred: New York Post

Dolphins Win Probability: 77.60767835%

Even after a tough loss to the Broncos, the Dolphins still are right in the thick of the playoff race at 6-4. Their secondary continues to play at a very high level, and because of that, I have enough confidence in their defense, especially with head coach Brian Flores calling the shots. To top it off, what better way for Tua Tagovailoa to bounce back than against a Jets defense that lacks a starting-caliber cornerback?

Jets Win Probability: 22.39232165%

It looks like Joe Flacco will start this game for the Jets, which is a better alternative than Sam Darnold starting in terms of their chances of winning. Flacco has quietly played fine this season, and New York has now scored 27+ points in their last two games; notable because their top three receivers are now fully healthy. At the very least, they appear to not be as incompetent as they looked at the beginning of the season.

Projected Winner: MIA by 6.73

Projected Spread: MIA (-9.11)

Spread: MIA (-7)

Moneyline Value: MIA

Over/Under Total Projection: 45.63 (Real O/U= 44.5)

As a young team, the Dolphins need nothing more than to get back on track by playing the Jets! If there is a game New York could win, this is probably their best shot, but even then, Miami is the overwhelming favorite to come out on top. Let’s hope that Tagovailoa is able to rebound!


New Orleans Saints (8-2, 12th) at Denver Broncos (4-6, 20th)

Photo Cred: WWLTV.com

Saints Win Probability: 53.58643321%

Few were expecting much from Taysom Hill under center, yet the Saints continued to produce offensively. Head coach Sean Payton utilized a lot of play-action passes, and finally, their passing game centered around receivers Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. They’re arguably more explosive both in the passing game and rushing attack, and how about their defense? Their pass rush is wrecking havoc right now, and the secondary is also performing up to expectations.

Broncos Win Probability: 46.41356679%

Hill may have led the Saints to a productive offense on Sunday, but facing the Broncos will be a far greater task. Led by head coach Vic Fangio, my models have Denver ranked as the second-best defense in the NFL. They’ll be able to stop New Orleans’ suddenly-innovative rushing attack, but also, they have the secondary to slow do their offensive playmakers. Meanwhile, Drew Lock’s big-play ability meshes well against a defense vulnerable to explosive passes.

Projected Winner: NO by 1.78

Projected Spread: NO (-1.19)

Spread: NO (-6)

Moneyline Value: DEN

Over/Under Total Projection: 44.83 (Real O/U= 43.5)

Hill’s production was largely due to offensive scheme and performance under pressure, which is very unstable. Vic Fangio is the exact type of defensive mastermind that will put him in a bind, especially if he can force him into unfavorable third-down situations. I could see this as a major letdown spot for the Saints, who may struggle to score points in this game, while I cannot justify Taysom Hill being a six-point favorite. Denver is a very smart bet here.

San Francisco 49ers (4-6, 17th) at Los Angeles Rams (7-3, 5th)

Photo Cred: Niners Nation

49ers Win Probability: 36.61097352%

When the 49ers and Rams first matched up, San Francisco came away with the victory. Now, they get to face Los Angeles, who is on a short week, while they’re coming off of their bye. With receiver Deebo Samuel back healthy, head coach Kyle Shanahan should scheme up enough offensive production despite being very limited at the quarterback position, and their defense isn’t a slouch at all. I wouldn’t want to be the person who overlooks this team.

Rams Win Probability: 63.38902648%

At the start of the season, many didn’t see the Rams as a playoff team. Now, they are considered by some to be the top team in the NFC. I cannot give enough praise to head coach Sean McVay, who has adapted tremendously. This season, he is not only passing more frequently on early downs, but he has also implemented the short-passing game into his offense. With a middling offensive line and a quarterback that struggles under pressure, this allows for receivers Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods to do damage after the catch, which gives me tremendous optimism about this offense. Meanwhile, their defense continues to perform exceptionally against the pass this season.

Projected Winner: LAR by 6.9

Projected Spread: LAR (-4.42)

Spread: LAR (-7)

Moneyline Value: SF

Over/Under Total Projection: 49.1 (Real O/U= 45.5)

I wouldn’t be shocked if the 49ers won this game, as Kyle Shanahan can never be underestimated. Thus, San Francisco’s moneyline may be slightly enticing. In the end, though, the Rams just have far more roster talent and also benefit from excellent coaching, so them being about a touchdown favorite is about right.

I’m sorry, but what is going on with this over/under total projection? Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay are combing for more than 45 points, folks. This is a clear overvaluation of defenses, which is just how the over in the Rams-Bucs game made sense last week. I’ll take smart offenses over feisty defenses any day of the week in 2020.

Kansas City Chiefs (9-1, 1st) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4, 4th)

Photo Cred: Bucs Wire-USA Today

Chiefs Win Probability: 55.01679719%

The Chiefs are simply impossible to beat. Even with Derek Carr putting together arguably the top quarterback performance of the season, Kansas City still was able to prevail. Should Tampa Bay try to be as aggressive defensively, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ abundance of playmakers will absolutely exploit them. While they are a cohesive unit, the Bucs are not, and that could be the difference in this game.

Bucs Win Probability: 44.98320281%

At the same time, Kansas City couldn’t handle facing an offense with Nelson Agholor as the top receiver, and now will have to contain Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski. That isn’t going to be easy by any means, especially since Tampa Bay is going to motivated to avoid falling to 7-5. Meanwhile, their pass rush could take advantage of the fact that Kansas City’s star right tackle, Mitchell Schwartz, will not play in this game.

Projected Winner: KC by 4.73

Projected Spread: KC (-1.66)

Spread: KC (-3.5)

Moneyline Value: TB

Over/Under Total Projection: 55.51 (Real O/U= 56)

The Bucs’ lack of cohesion has hurt them tremendously against teams that are well-coached, and the Chiefs certainly qualify as such. Kansas City’s style of play defensively, which limits over-the-top passes and forces you to win in the short passing game, is the exact prototype for limiting the Bucs, while Tampa Bay’s defensive style is not a good mesh versus the Chiefs whatsoever. In summary, the matchups favor Kansas City here.

Still, I wouldn’t rush to the bank to back Kansas City here. A strong possibility exists that the Bucs could win this game, as they remain as talented as any team out there. You never want to be on the wrong side of them finally coming together as an offense, as if that ever happens, watch out.


Chicago Bears (5-5, 19th) at Green Bay Packers (7-3, 2nd)

Photo Cred: CBS Sports

Bears Win Probability: 34.59786737%

The Bears don’t know who will start at quarterback for them, but ironically, that doesn’t make a difference! Their chances of winning centers around their defense, which has played tremendously this season. Plus, their offenses does have some big-play potential between Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney, so maybe they can connect on a few passes down the field?

Packers Win Probability: 65.40213263%

Unlike the Bears, the Packers don’t have a consistent crisis at the quarterback position. In fact, Aaron Rodgers and his 92.6 overall Pro Football Focus grade are far from a crisis. Green Bay’s passing attack is incredibly explosive this season, while Chicago’s pass defense may be slightly overvalued. Meanwhile, with their pass rush and secondary players, I don’t anticipate them struggling at all to stop the Bears’ “offense”.

Projected Winner: GB by 8.08

Projected Spread: GB (-5.08)

Spread: GB (-8.5)

Moneyline Value: CHI

Over/Under Total Projection: 50.3 (Real O/U= 45)

The Bears haven’t exactly fired on all cylinders offensively ever this season, but they are 5-5 and could benefit from the right end of volatility from whoever starts at quarterback, especially in a primetime rivalry game off of a bye.

I want to focus on the total in this game, however. I’m sorry, but any game in which Aaron Rodgers is playing in should not have an over/under projection of just 45 points. Yes, you’re worried about Chicago’s offense, but they could also throw a pick six or give Green Bay favorable field position at any moment, while they could easily score garbage time points if this turns into a blowout.


Seattle Seahawks (7-3, 6th) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1, 25th)

Photo Cred: Field Gulls

Seahawks Win Probability: 66.3493674%

When it comes to producing chunk plays, only the Chiefs appear to do so as consistently through the air as the Seahawks. Russell Wilson got back on track last week to continue his phenomenal season, while Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are as dynamic of a receiver duo as there is. Sure, their defense has been a liability this season, but do you really think Carson Wentz is going to exploit that?

Eagles Win Probability: 33.6506326%

The Eagles rank 6th in yards allowed per play this season, and their pass rush should be able to affect Russell Wilson, who tends to hold onto the ball too long. I mean, Philadelphia has enough playmakers to push the ball down the field, and Wentz has been productive in the past. Maybe this is the game where he finally looks like his old self?

Projected Winner: SEA by 7.73

Projected Spread: SEA (-5.4)

Spread: SEA (-5.5)

Moneyline Value: PHI

Over/Under Total Projection: 52.8 (Real O/U= 50.5)

Russell Wilson versus Carson Wentz? You’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who is confidently backing the Eagles here. They remain such a talented team that you always have to be cognizant about them hitting their stride, but we’e also eleven weeks through the season. The 0.32 EPA/pass difference here strongly suggests Seattle takes care of business here.

Best Model Picks

Although my model is more of a projection model than a betting model, we can still use it to identify the best value picks. To do so, I calculated the average difference from Vegas’ lines and the model’s projections, as well as the standard deviation. Thus, all of these picks are listed because they are one deviation over from the average difference.


  1. WSH (+3) at DAL
  2. DEN (+6) vs NO
  3. TEN (+3.5) at IND




  1. CHI at GB (Over 45)
  2. BAL at PIT (Over 44.5)
  3. CAR at MIN (Over 48.5)
  4. SF at LAR (Over 45.5)

All odds are updated from Vegas Insider as of Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Additionally, all advanced metrics are courtesy of Pro Football Focus. Remember, these are based on blind projections, so when it comes to betting on games, please bet responsibility and realize that as a small-sample size sport, anything can happen within one game of football! Hey, that’s the fun of it all; enjoy a great week of football!

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