2020 NFL Week 13 Game-By-Game Model Projections

We knew that we weren’t in for a normal season, and Week 12 illustrated that.

Not only did the Steelers-Ravens game get postponed for almost a week, but COVID-19 rules forced the Broncos to play without a quarterback, while several other impact players from various teams were placed on the COVID-19 list. Furthermore, with so many quarterback injuries, teams were forced to play backups, making the games even more perplexing.

With that, let us examine my model’s projections for every game in the Week 13 slate. My model is able to calculate a team’s chances of winning by using Pro Football Focus grades and coaching adjustments, and from there, calculating the gap between the two teams before covering it into a win probability. In the past, that win probability was used to project a spread, and from there, it served as more a model to pick against the spread.

However, this was never my goal with the model. Rather, I want it to be able to project the estimated margin of victory by each team. Luckily, I have now transformed my model to calculate how much better a team is than average on a neutral field, and from there, those totals can be used to project how much one team will beat another by. Now, I can provide reasonable expectations for you all on how a game should turn out.

If you had been interested in the betting aspect of this model, however, fret not! You can still utilize the difference in margin of victory and spread to find the best values from a spread perspective, while my model now projects recommended money lines and over/under totals. After we go through all the games, I will go over the model’s top bets of the week, so you will want to stick around until the end!

Also, home-field advantage has been non-existent this season in terms of point differential, so for more accurate projections to made, there won’t be any points added to help home teams.

With that addressed, let us get to the Week 13 slate! There isn’t a game on Thursday night, but we have two games on Monday, one on Tuesday, and multiple Sunday games with a lot on the line!

NOTE: Model will be updated with injury updates, power ratings calculated with injuries in mind

*Odds via Vegas Insider

SUNDAY, 1 PM ET

New Orleans Saints (9-2, 13th) at Atlanta Falcons (4-7, 15th)

Photo Cred: atlantafalcons.com

Saints Win Probability: 50.9957457%

Drew Brees and Michael Thomas only have played two games together, yet the Saints are 9-2. That speaks to their overall roster depth, as they are now 7-0 without Brees over the past two years. They took care of the Falcons just two weeks ago with Taysom Hill under center, so they will be hoping head coach Sean Payton can work similar magic on that side of the ball, while their defensive line and improving secondary may cause Matt Ryan to be under siege all game long.

Falcons Win Probability: 49.0042543%

As I say every week, the Falcons are clearly better than their record, and have now won four of six with Raheem Morris as the interm head coach. Quietly, their defense has been tremendous as of late, and now ranks above-average in terms of expected points added allowed, as well as 12th in Pro Football Focus’ opponent-adjusted grades. If they can continue to play well at all three levels, they’ll have no trouble slowing down Hill, who was atrocious last week and benefitted from production in fluky metrics when these two teams first played. From there, their offense is more than explosive enough to lead them to victory.

Projected Winner: NO by 0.48

Spread: NO (-3)

Projected Spread: NO (-0.33)

Moneyline Value: ATL

Over/Under Total Projection: 48.9 (Real O/U= 46)

With the way the Saints have played defensively, they are going to get more love from the betting markets than they probably should, especially since Hill provides far more value in fantasy leagues than in real life. The quarterback advantage is once again completely on Atlanta’s side, and I don’t think Payton will have as much luck scheming up success now that the Falcons have gotten to face Hill. Thus, this game is essentially a pick-em, and really comes down to game script. If New Orleans gets an early lead, they’re in position to let their pass rush feast on Ryan. However, if the Falcons get an early lead, I don’t see any way that Hill is able to lead a comeback attempt.

Detroit Lions (4-7, 28th) at Chicago Bears (5-6, 24th)

Photo Cred: Bears Wire- USAToday.com

Lions Win Probability: 34.51870861%

It’s rare to celebrate a blowout loss on Thanksgiving, but for Lions fans, the team’s 41-25 loss against the Texans gave them exactly what they wanted; head coach Matt Patricia and general manager Bob Quinn were each let go on Saturday. We’ve seen other teams who have fired their coaches (Houston, Atlanta) improve significantly down the stretch, and Detroit is talented enough to follow in that path. Facing an incompetent offense certainly helps.

Bears Win Probability: 66.54755586%

If there was any time for the Bears to score some points, it’s this week. The Lions rank last in coverage grade, last in opponent-adjusted grades, and now will be without cornerback Desmond Trufant and interior defensive lineman Danny Shelton. Star receiver Allen Robinson is going to be constantly open, and their pass defense should do fine against a Lions offense that has vastly underperformed this season.

Projected Winner: CHI by 3.67

Spread: CHI (-3)

Projected Spread: CHI (-5.1)

Moneyline Value: CHI

Over/Under Total Projection: 46.67 (Real O/U= 44.5)

In simple terms, although neither team is good, the Bears remain the better team. The Lions have been decimated with injuries all around, and currently, it doesn’t appear elite receiver Kenny Golladay will be ready to return from injury. If you’re a bettor, stay far away from this game, but I expect a close, slow-paced game with a lot of mistakes, in which Chicago wins to get back to .500. Ironically, that would technically keep them right in the thick of the playoff race! (I can’t believe this team was once 5-1)

Indianapolis Colts (7-4, 14th) at Houston Texans (4-7, 22nd)

Photo Cred: Houston Chronicle

Colts Win Probability: 56.04671062%

The Colts are coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Titans, but there is a lot working in their favor. For starters, their defense should be much healthier with the anticipated return of interior defender DeForest Buckner and linebacker Bobby Okereke. Then, they also get to face a Texans team that will be without explosive receiver Will Fuller and top cornerback Bradley Roby Jr. due to injury. Their top-ten passing offense (per yards/attempt) should feast on a weak Houston secondary, which I expect head coach Frank Reich to take advantage of often. Meanwhile, their defense is suited to limit the big-play ability of the Texans offense, given the scheme they run.

Texans Win Probability: 43.95328938%

At the end of the day, do you want to side with Phillip Rivers or Deshaun Watson. I’ll gladly side with the quarterback who is ranked #1 in PFF grade per drop back, per data analyst Eric Eager:

The Colts are better than the Texans practically everywhere else, but when you have Watson, how much does the matter?

Projected Winner: IND by 2.65

Spread: IND (-3)

Projected Spread: IND (-2)

Moneyline Value: HOU

Over/Under Total Projection: 52.47 (Real O/U= 51.5)

This is a interesting game, as it’ll display how much an elite quarterback can overcome. The Colts are better coached, have more playmakers, and have a far superior defense. Thus, they’re in a good position to get back not track, but never doubt Watson.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-8-1, 31st) at Miami Dolphins (7-4, 19th)

Photo Cred: The Phinsider

Bengals Win Probability: 16.71793382%

Without Joe Burrow, there is little excitement around the Bengals. Still, in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, they still have productive receivers that perhaps can allow them to score points. However, to win this game, they’ll need rookie mistakes from Tua Tagovailoa against a coverage unit that ranks 7th in Pro Football Focus coverage grade. With William Jackson matching up with Devante Parker and Jessie Bates roaming the middle of the field, that isn’t impossible by any means.

Dolphins Win Probability: 83.28206618%

That said, I don’t see how the Bengals score any points. Brandon Allen is a below-replacement level quarterback, while Higgins and Boyd will have to face a man-heavy defense with an elite cornerback duo in Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. The coaching advantage is incredibly lopsided here, while the Dolphins certainly have more roster talent.

Projected Winner: MIA by 8.11

Spread: MIA (-11.5)

Projected Spread: MIA (-10.98)

Moneyline Value: Neither

Over/Under Total Projection: 43.58 (Real O/U= 42)

The Dolphins should definitely win this game. However, do they deserve to be an 11.5-point favorite against anyone? My model has Tagovailoa as the 24th-best passer this week, and when that’s the case, it is hard to anticipate a blowout. Home-field advantage isn’t a factor here, so since they closed as a 7-point favorite against the Jets, you’re essentially saying the Bengals are 4.5 points worse than Cincinnati. It is hard to back Brandon Allen, yet the Bengals are certainly a wise bet here on the spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10, 30th) at Minnesota Vikings (5-6,11th)

Photo Cred: The Viking Age

Jaguars Win Probability: 15.23614923%

How about Mike Glennon? The veteran quarterback kept the Jaguars very competitive against the 8-3 Browns last week, and he’ll once again face a below-average group of cornerbacks; Minnesota also doesn’t have much of a pass rush. Sure, their pass coverage is awful, but will the Vikings pass the ball enough to expose that?

Vikings Win Probability: 84.76385077%

Right now, the Vikings rank 2nd in yards/play, while Kirk Cousins has the fifth-highest Pro Football Focus grade for a quarterback. With star receiver Adam Thielen coming back, they’re extremely explosive, and you can make a case that the Jaguars, given their injuries, have the worst pass defense in the NFL. Heck, running back Dalvin Cook may actually help them pass the ball more, and Jacksonville’s lack of a pass rush is a blessing for their weak offensive line. They have the advantage at every spot, and I’m not sure it’s close.

Projected Winner: MIN by 10.58

Spread: MIN (-9.5)

Projected Spread: MIN (-11.47)

Moneyline Value: MIN

Over/Under Total Projection: 50.77 (Real O/U=52)

The Vikings’ conservative approach tends to limit their ability to separate from teams, but they are SO MUCH more talented than the Jaguars. The trio of Cousins, Thielen, and Jefferson has been incredible this season, and I expect them to continue to dominate against Jacksonville. As long as they don’t allow two defensive touchdowns and a muffed punt (yes, that really happened last week), they should win this game comfortably.

Las Vegas Raiders (6-5, 18th) at New York Jets (0-11, 32nd)

Photo Cred: Las Vegas Review Journal

Raiders Win Probability: 86.91526908%

After nearly beating the Chiefs in primetime, a letdown loss to the Falcons was so easy to see happening for the Raiders, who tend to be an emotional team with clear highs and lows- head coach Jon Gruden is as energetic as it gets. Thus, I expect their response to be strong against the tanking Jets. They still have one of the better offenses in the NFL- Derek Carr has a 6.07% big-time throw rate – and New York doesn’t exactly have starting-caliber cornerbacks. Meanwhile, Las Vegas’ defense is quietly playing better, outside of the game against Kansas City, and playing Sam Darnold certainly is an opportunity for that to continue.

Jets Win Probability: 13.08473092%

I mean, Sam Darnold shouldn’t be under pressure this game? We’re at the point of the season where writing anything positive about the Jets has become practically impossible.

Projected Winner: LV by 9.67

Spread: LV (-8)

Projected Spread: LV (-12.18)

Moneyline Value: LV

Over/Under Total Projection: 48.82 (Real O/U= 47.5)

Darnold is not a productive quarterback, especially in New York. Their offense was producing under Joe Flacco, but I don’t see much hope for them with the third-year signal caller back in the lineup. The Raiders have the offense necessary to roll through this game, and keep an eye on a major breakout game for rookie speedster Henry Ruggs III!

Cleveland Browns (8-3, 12th) at Tennessee Titans (7-4, 5th)

Photo Cred: Dawgs By Nature

Browns Win Probability: 43.38873431%

They may not be doing so in flashy matter, but the Browns are 8-3, and have a top-ten offense based on Pro Football Focus grades. Baker Mayfield has been a disaster under pressure this season, but he’ll be well protected against a very poor pass rush, and he has played much better over the past five games. Overall, they’re just a very functional team, which speaks to the job head coach Kevin Stefanski has done in his first season.

Titans Win Probability: 56.61126569%

With a better quarterback, more playmakers, and a better defense, the Titans are essentially an upgraded version of Cleveland; they even run the same style of offensive scheme! They are far more explosive, and after bullying the Colts last week, they will have to chance to do so against a far inferior defense. Right now, this is the team that has the best chance of beating the Chiefs in the AFC.

Projected Winner: TEN by 3.82

Spread: TEN (-5.5)

Projected Spread: TEN (-2.18)

Moneyline Value: CLE

Over/Under Total Projection: 53.17 (Real O/U= 54)

If you like some good old-fashioned rushing offenses who try to assert their authority in the trenches, this is the game for you! The Browns are a fine team, so I do agree that the 5.5-point spread is too much. However, they’re essentially an inferior version of Tennessee, who have the much more reliable passing offense and defense. With their offense, which ranks 2nd in expected points added/play, I’d give them a better shot of beating Kansas City than the Steelers.

SUNDAY, 4 PM ET

Los Angeles Rams (7-4, 7th) at Arizona Cardinals (6-5, 16th)

Photo Cred: Turf Show Times

Rams Win Probability: 58.000679399%

Although they’re coming off of a lost to the 49ers, it’s important to remember that the Rams had just beaten the Seahawks and Bucs, so they certainly deserve our respect. Their offense has underachieved, but with head coach Sean McVay calling the shots, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them flourish against an exploitable Cardinals defense. On the other side of the ball, Kyler Murray may still be limited as a rusher due to his shoulder injury, and if that’s the case, Los Angeles’ exceptional secondary is well-suited to provide ample resistance.

Cardinals Win Probability: 41.99320601%

The Cardinals have been able to scheme up pressure through exotic blitzes, and I don’t exactly trust Jared Goff under pressure; Arizona ranks 12th in yards/play allowed. Murray’s big-time throw rate is higher than Goff, and he’s also done a better job of limiting turnovers, which is why the Cardinals have the more productive passing offense currently. When that’s the case, you certainly have a decent chance to win.

Projected Winner: LAR by 4.4

Spread: LAR (-3)

Projected Spread: LAR (-2.64)

Moneyline Value: Neither

Over/Under Total Projection: 51.66 (Real O/U= 48.5)

This should be a very fun game to watch! These teams are stylistically different in almost every way imaginable, and both need to win this game; not only do they want to stay in the playoffs and have a chance at the division, but they also want to stay in contention for the #5 seed. I could see either team winning, though my model rightfully sees the Rams as the better team.

The best bet here is on the over/under total. Both of these offenses have excellent play-callers, and it’s likely the Rams defense is being overvalued here. In what should be a very tight game, my model certainly sees value in the over.

New York Giants (4-7, 29th) at Seattle Seahawks (8-3, 4th)

Photo Cred: Integrity Garage Doors

Giants Win Probability: 15.43963593%

Without Daniel Jones, I’m not sure how the Giants keep this game competitive. They do have some offensive weapons and a solid pass rush, but that’s about all that is going for them here with Colt McCoy under center.

Seahawks Win Probability: 84.56036407%

Facing a strong front four, this is the exact game where the Seahawks continue to “let Russ cook”. There isn’t any reason to expect them not to be tremendously explosive against a very vulnerable secondary, which will obviously lead to a lot of points. Does one actually believe Colt McCoy will keep up with Russell Wilson?

Projected Winner: SEA by 13.71

Spread: SEA (-10)

Projected Spread: SEA (-11.41)

Moneyline Value: SEA

Over/Under Total Projection: 50.78 (Real O/U= 47)

The betting markets barely adjusted the spread at all in this game to reflect Jones being out, which is a massive mistake. He’s done a fine job this season, and the drop-off to McCoy is going to be extremely noticeable. Given the explosiveness of Seattle’s offense and the exploitable flaws that New York has, winning by ten+ points is more than doable for the Seahawks.

Also, the over/under total is intriguing. I’m not sure the Seahawks don’t cover the 47 points on their own, and the likelihood this is a blowout increases the chances the Giants score points in garbage time. Thus, if you believe that Seattle can cover the spread, you should double-down by taking the over as well.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-7-1, 25th) at Green Bay Packers (8-3, 3rd)

Photo Cred: Eagles Wire- USA Today

Eagles Win Probability: 28.10214896%

What is there to say about the Eagles at this point? Their offense is a mess, and it will continue to be if Carson Wentz continues to play the way he has thus far. On the bright side, they still rank in the top-five in yards allowed/play, which is a testament to the job defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has done this year.

Packers Win Probability: 71.89785104%

The Eagles may have a great pass rush, but that won’t be an issue for the Packers. They essentially neutralized the Bears’ vaunted pass rush a week ago, and given Philadelphia’s lackluster group of defensive backs, they should score a lot of points. Carson Wentz against this pass rush also may not look pretty, assuming he continues to hold onto the ball too long.

Projected Winner: GB by 10.34

Spread: GB (-9)

Projected Spread: GB (-7.23)

Moneyline Value: PHI

Over/Under Total Projection: 50.89 (Real O/U= 46.5)

There is always a chance that the Eagles could click, but I’m willing to bank on the idea that they are fundamentally a bad football team. Green Bay is well suited to exploit their weaknesses and neutralize their strengths, and may very well be the best team in the NFC, thanks to the quarterback-receiver duo of Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams.

Last week, my model liked the over on the Packers Bears game, and it exceeded that mark by a substantial amount. The reason this week stands. Green Bay is going to score early and often, which solidifies this as a blowout. From there, Philadelphia, like Chicago, will likely move the ball against a soft prevent defense, increasing the odds of the over hitting. Plus, with turnovers always in play in a game where Carson Wentz is playing, you can’t count out defensive touchdowns here; I absolutely agree with my model’s love for the over in this game.

New England Patriots (5-6, 20th) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-8, 17th)

Photo Cred: Pats Pulpit

Patriots Win Probability: 48.74228882%

They’re a long shot for the postseason with a 5-6 record, but if I’m a contending team, the Patriots are not a team I want to face. Bill Belichick once is coaching them tremendously, though offensive coordinator Josh McDaniel’s offense has been the most pleasant surprise. New England ranks 10th in Pro Football Focus’ opponent-adjusted offensive rankings, as they’re leveraging Cam Newton in a rushing offense that ranks 5th in yards/game. Meanwhile, Justin Herbert’s production has mostly come under pressure this season, and when he faced a similar style defense in Miami, he struggled.

Chargers Win Probability: 51.25771118%

The Chargers have to be one of the most talented 3-8 teams I’ve seen, especially with how Herbert has played, regardless of the sustainability of his success moving forward. Their loss in Buffalo was their first two-score loss of the season, and they’ve gone toe-to-toe with several playoff teams (Chiefs, Saints, Bucs) this season. New England’s defense has struggled mightily this season, and with a bevy of playmakers to work with, Los Angeles may be able to take advantage.

Projected Winner: LAC by 0.51

Spread: PK

Projected Spread: LAC (-0.42)

Moneyline Value: Neither

Over/Under Total Projection: 47.67 (Real O/U= 47.5)

This game is rightfully a pick-em, as the two teams are essentially even. In the end, it comes down to the better coaching staff versus the more talented team. My model slightly leans with the Chargers, but you’re justified by picking either side. Certainly, this is a game one should not look to bet, and rather, it will be fun to see how Herbert responds against arguably the greatest defensive mind of all time.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Denver Broncos (4-7, 23rd) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-1, 1st)

Photo Cred: Mile High Report

Broncos Win Probability: 29.89793946%

Good news Broncos fans; this week, you’ll have an active quarterback! Drew Lock has been arguably the worst starting quarterback this season, but he at least has a 5.30% big-time throw, meaning he has the big-play ability that you need to pull off an upset. Mainly, though, any optimism regarding Denver centers around their defense, which ranks third in my model.

Chiefs Win Probability: 70.10206054%

No defense is stopping Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The last time these two teams played, Kansas City won by 27, though they did benefit from defensive and special teams touchdowns. It’s the league’s best quarterback versus arguably the worst (not counting backups currently playing), so obviously that favors the Chiefs here.

Projected Winner: KC by 12.6

Spread: KC (-14)

Projected Spread: KC (-6.63)

Moneyline Value: DEN

Over/Under Total Projection: 51.33 (Real O/U= 51)

First off, let me acknowledge that the Chiefs are almost certainly going to win this game, and they are by far the best team in the NFL. However, they’re currently -1000 in terms of their money line odds, which is absurd for a divisional game. I don’t consider Denver much worse than the Raiders and Chargers, two teams that have been competitive with Kansas City this season, and if they hit the right side of variance, you never know.

Then again, please do not feel obligated to bet the Broncos money line. Even if it’s a nice long shot bet, I couldn’t imagine backing Drew Lock over Patrick Mahomes.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Washington (4-7, 21st) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-0, 2nd)

Photo Cred: USA Today

Washington Win Probability: 36.4450542%

The NFC East is a laughingstock at this point, but the Washington Football team is the best team in the division. When you first think of them, you see their defense, which is 4th in yards/play allowed and 6th in Pro Football Focus opponent-adjusted rankings. They have done a tremendous job defending the pass this season, which they’ll need to do against a pass-happy, yet often ineffective Steelers offense- I expect them to be able to do so. Meanwhile, their offense has been much better since Alex Smith was slotted in under center; his metrics are back to where they were before the injury.

Steelers Win Probability: 63.55549458%

The Steelers are not the best team in the NFL, despite their undefeated record. That said, Ben Roethlisberger and the offense should have had much more success through the air if it wasn’t for some fluky drops, and they still have a lot of talent to work with; their offensive line, plus Roethlisberger’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly, will neutralize Washington’s pass rush. Smith does a good job of limiting pressure, but facing a defense loaded with a fearsome pass rush and elite secondary is much different than facing the Cowboys.

Projected Winner: PIT by 7.35

Spread: PIT (-8)

Projected Spread: PIT (-4.47)

Moneyline Value: WSH

Over/Under Total Projection: 44.52 (Real O/U= 42.5)

The Steelers simply cannot blow teams out. That’s the product of relying on your defense, as their offense hasn’t shown the ability to produce big plays. There isn’t any reason to believe that will start against potentially a top-five defense, making Washington’s money line a good play; all it takes is a lucky break or two for them to pull off the upset. Pittsburgh should win this game by around a touchdown in a defensive grudge match, but this should be an interesting game between two teams with similar preferred styles of play.

Buffalo Bills (8-3, 8th) at San Francisco 49ers (5-6, 9th)

Photo Cred: Niners Wire- USA Today

Bills Win Probability: 50.40967767%

Man, am I excited to watch the Bills on primetime! They’re one of the few teams in the NFL without a significant roster flaw, which is a testament to their team building. Josh Allen is Pro Football Focus’ 6th-highest graded quarterback, and he plays in a friendly scheme that utilizes early-down passes, play-action concepts, and designed quarterback runs. Facing a subpar pass rush, I expect him to be able to hold onto the ball long and navigate the pocket, and from there, he has a lot of weapons to work with. Keep an eye out for their surging defense, meanwhile; they pressure the opposing quarterback often, and Nick Mullens struggles under pressure.

49ers Win Probability: 49.59032233%

If the Bills have one flaw, it’s their run defense; they rank last by a mile in Pro Football Focus run defense grade. Thus, the 49ers, who are built on creating yardage after the catch and explosive rushes on unique concepts, should be able to produce offensively. Allen has played great, but San Francisco’s defense is well coached and don’t allow a lot of big plays, and overall, they’re finally healthy on both sides of the ball.

Projected Winner: BUF by 0.24

Spread: PK

Projected Spread: BUF (-0.14)

Moneyline Value: Neither

Over/Under Total Projection: 50.31 (Real O/U= 47.5)

This is going to be an extremely fun game between two of the top-coached teams in the NFL. San Francisco should be able to exploit Buffalo’s one main weakness, but then again, how much does that matter? The quarterback and passing offense advantage are certainly with the Bills here, and for that reason, they are probably the safer pick. Overall, though, this game certainly deserves to be a pick-em.

TUESDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Dallas Cowboys (3-8, 27th) at Baltimore Ravens (6-5, 10th)

Photo Cred: dallascowboys.com

Cowboys Win Probability: 25.83076736%

Hey, the Cowboys are still in the NFC East picture! On the bright side, Andy Dalton has been playing better since returning, and they still have enough offensive playmakers to be relevant. If the Ravens have key players out, their odds of winning increase significantly.

Ravens Win Probability: 74.16923264

If Baltimore is healthy in this game, they are by far the better team over the Cowboys. Their blitz-happy defense should feast on an offensive line that has been decimated with injury, while playing Dallas is the perfect opportunity for Lamar Jackson and the offense to get back to speed.

Projected Winner: BAL by 9.76

Spread: BAL (-7)*

Projected Spread: BAL (-7.98)

Moneyline Value: N/A

Over/Under Total Projection: 49.24 (Real O/U= N/A)

For obvious reasons, the betting markets don’t have this game on the board. These projections are assuming Baltimore is at full strength, but that is unlikely to be the case. We’ll see what happens, but this is a huge game for the Ravens, so not having Jackson, Mark Andrews, or members of their offensive line could lead to a loss that causes them to miss the playoffs.

Best Model Picks

Although my model is more of a projection model than a betting model, we can still use it to identify the best value picks. To do so, I calculated the average difference from Vegas’ lines and the model’s projections, as well as the standard deviation. Thus, all of these picks are listed because they are one deviation over from the average difference.

SPREAD

  1. SEA (-10) vs NYG
  2. CIN (+11.5) at MIA

MONEYLINE

  1. DEN (+650) at KC

OVER/UNDER

  1. PHI at GB (Over 46.5)
  2. NYG at SEA (Over 46.5)

All odds are updated from Vegas Insider as of Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Additionally, all advanced metrics are courtesy of Pro Football Focus. Remember, these are based on blind projections, so when it comes to betting on games, please bet responsibility and realize that as a small-sample size sport, anything can happen within one game of football! Hey, that’s the fun of it all; enjoy a great week of football!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s