Welcome to the first ever update of my new tool to better project team success: xxWins! Looking at a team’s performance on offense, defense, and pitching, we’ll not only be able to project a team’s win total, but their expected run differential. Run differential is useful, but takes more time to stabilize, so this tool can allow us to create more accurate projections sooner! For … Continue reading MLB xxWins Projection Update: June 11th
We are less than two weeks from opening day! This time last year, we were left wondering if a baseball season would happen at all. Now, we are looking at the return of a 162-game season! In theory, this would make projecting the upcoming season much easier than last year, where a shorter schedule leads to more variance. What correlated to winning in 2020 was … Continue reading 2021 MLB American League Projections
When Julio Urias struck out Willy Adames to secure the Dodgers’ their first World Series championship, the baseball world was able to take a collective sigh of relief; they had managed to complete a 60-game season through the midst of a pandemic. However, this was only the beginning of a much different time in baseball, and I’m not simply referring to Justin Turner being pulled … Continue reading 2020-2021 MLB Offseason Review: Which Teams Spent The Most Efficiently?
They say that a run prevented is as important as a run scored, and this checks out. In fact, based on the coefficient of determination (r^2) for the two variables, a run prevented has actually been more correlated with team success than a run scored. This has been labeled as the “run prevention era”, and just by that measure, this would appear to be the … Continue reading MLB Study: Rethinking How We Look At Team Defense
Building an MLB roster is anything but simple, to say the least. It would be very convenient if it was as easy as playing MLB The Show, but as we are well aware of, there are many complexities to roster construction. Not only do organizations need to have high-end talent, but they also need to have 26 quality big-leaguers, as well other players in the … Continue reading Stars or Depth? What is The Best Way To Build an MLB Roster?
In terms of strategy, no game has shifted more in the past decade than baseball. We’re well aware of the increase in strikeouts, pitchers not pitching a third time through the order, and other various ways the game has changed. However, in my opinion, there has been one change that hasn’t garnered enough attention: slowly but surely, baseball is becoming a position-less sport. Simply being … Continue reading MLB Deep Dive: Analyzing The Value of Defensive Versatility