With free agency and the draft well in the rearview mirror, we’ve reached the “dead period” of the NFL offseason. That is, unless you play fantasy football. Rather than focus on which players are in the “best shape of their lives” and tracking training camp statistics, this is a critical time for the formulation and finalization of rankings. Competitive drafts are already starting to take … Continue reading Fantasy Football 2021 Quarterback Rankings + Projections
There is no more exciting time in the NFL, in my opinion, than the NFL Draft. Studies have shown that successful rosters are built through the draft, and it makes sense; the top players tend to be kept by their respective teams, and thus don’t often reach free agency. The surplus value of getting a cost-controlled player for four years, in addition to a fifth-year … Continue reading Changing The Way We Evaluate NFL QB Prospects
With the 2020-2021 NFL season now over, it is officially the offseason! To be fair, there really isn’t an offseason in professional sports- activity happens year-round! As we get farther into the offseason, we will get to see how each front office goes about building their rosters. The best part about this? No two general managers are alike! Some will prioritize adding star talent through … Continue reading Stars or Depth? What Is The Best Way To Build an NFL Roster?
When the NFL season got underway on September 13th, there was a lot of skepticism that the season would play out, or that it would feel like a normal season. After all, players didn’t have normal offseason schedules, and having zero/limited fans in attendance was something we all had to get used to. Yet, we have made it! On Sunday, we will witness history on … Continue reading Super Bowl LV Model Projections
The divisional round was one of the most hyped-up weekends of football in recent memory, and we were treated to some interesting games! The league’s best offense (Packers), as expected, was able to take down the league’s best defense (Rams). Then, in a matchup between two progressive organizations with young quarterbacks, the Bills flexed their roster depth with a primetime win over the Ravens at … Continue reading 2020-2021 NFL Conference Championship Game-By-Game Model Projections
The week of July 15th is always a busy time for business in the NFL- it’s the deadline for players on the franchise tag to sign new extensions. For the most part, the attention was on quarterback Dak Prescott’s negotiations with the Cowboys, but instead, three different players signed new massive contracts. It’s nice to see Chris Jones, Myles Garrett, and Derrick Henry get rewarded … Continue reading Reacting To Chris Jones, Myles Garrett, and Derrick Henry Extensions: NFL Teams Clearly Still Behind The Curve
Whereas baseball is filled with advanced statistics, other sports, particularly football, have lagged behind. For analysis, the common fan too often turns to unstable, flawed statistics such as yards gained/allowed, turnovers, and touchdowns, and, as a result, NFL players tend to be more polarizing than MLB players- analysts are using different variables to compare players. Luckily for us, Pro Football Focus’ grades and new Wins Above … Continue reading Fine-Tuning Wins Above Replacement To Better Capture an NFL Player’s $/Year Value
Team-building is just a fascinating phenomenon is sports, and, honestly, it is my favorite part about studying them. There are so many different strategies that lead executives take towards building a championship-caliber roster, and since they come from different backgrounds, their values are completely different. There isn’t a sport where this isn’t more obvious than in the NFL. While more executives are “analytically-minded” and have … Continue reading What Actually Wins NFL Games? Not What Conventional Wisdom Wants You To Believe!
When assessing who the best quarterbacks are, people have their different ways of evaluation. Some look at intangibles and playoff production, while others look at statistics such as passing yards and touchdowns. However, both of those methods have a flawed foundation, so I’ve come up with a different way to evaluate quarterback production. Using eight advanced statistics from Pro Football Focus, I’ve established a formula to rank … Continue reading Ranking The Top 48 Quarterbacks From A Mathematical Perspective
It’s finally here! For two long weeks, we’ve been waiting for Sunday, February 2nd; at 6:40 PM ET, the 49ers and Chiefs will face off in Miami in what should be an amazing Super Bowl. In my opinion, this is the most evenly-matched Super Bowl since Super Bowl XLIX, in which the Patriots defeated the Seahawks 28-24 on the infamous Malcolm Butler interception at the … Continue reading Super Bowl LIV Prediction