Welcome to the first ever update of my new tool to better project team success: xxWins! Looking at a team’s performance on offense, defense, and pitching, we’ll not only be able to project a team’s win total, but their expected run differential. Run differential is useful, but takes more time to stabilize, so this tool can allow us to create more accurate projections sooner! For … Continue reading MLB xxWins Projection Update: June 11th
Recently, I introduced the award index, a tool that will allow us to better project individual success/award winners. However, as mentioned in the piece, baseball is a team game. General managers aren’t trying to make moves to acquire as many award winners as possible. Rather, they’re making various endeavors to do whatever it takes to ultimately compete for a World Series championship, regardless of when … Continue reading Introducing xxWins: A New Way To Forecast MLB Team Success
We are less than two weeks from opening day! This time last year, we were left wondering if a baseball season would happen at all. Now, we are looking at the return of a 162-game season! In theory, this would make projecting the upcoming season much easier than last year, where a shorter schedule leads to more variance. What correlated to winning in 2020 was … Continue reading 2021 MLB American League Projections
When Julio Urias struck out Willy Adames to secure the Dodgers’ their first World Series championship, the baseball world was able to take a collective sigh of relief; they had managed to complete a 60-game season through the midst of a pandemic. However, this was only the beginning of a much different time in baseball, and I’m not simply referring to Justin Turner being pulled … Continue reading 2020-2021 MLB Offseason Review: Which Teams Spent The Most Efficiently?
The following mock draft is courtesy of prospect writer Mason McRae. With the college season nearly a month away, scouts have finished putting together their preference lists. For the next month, they will likely be focusing on the JUCO (junior college) side, as they’ve already had exhibition games against other teams, and with the season for them starting in less than two weeks, it’s the … Continue reading 2021 MLB Mock Draft 3.0
The MLB offseason is filled with a lot of player movement, but something that always tends to fly under the radar is the hiring of new coaches. There is a reason why manager hires aren’t extremely exciting; the perception is that they aren’t important in today’s MLB. With front offices more involved in-game decision making, as well as baseball being more of a “three true … Continue reading MLB Team Building: What Should Teams Be Looking For When Hiring a Manager?
Recently, we took a look at trends from the first eight weeks of the NFL season, and compared it to what generally correlates to success in a normal season. Well, why not do the same for baseball? After all, similar to our NFL study, we’re dealing with a small sample in a 60-game season, and with all the ramifications from the atypical nature of a … Continue reading 2020 MLB 60-Game Season Review: Analyzing Trends/Lucky Teams
After we were treated to a fantastic World Series between the Rays and Dodgers, it is time for us to look ahead to the offseason! This is a tricky time to be a baseball analyst, as due to the loss of revenue due to the COVID-19 pandemics, teams appear to be intent on cutting payroll. That won’t stop us from still enjoying what really is … Continue reading “Playing GM” For Every MLB Team Ahead of 2020 Offseason: American League Edition
Last week, I highlighted ten key principles (https://mvpsportstalk.com/2020/09/19/its-time-to-fix-how-we-evaluate-mlb-prospects/) of modern-day prospect evaluation. Unfortunately, those principles were created based on glaring misconceptions with the practice, and that has led to several prospects being undervalued. Luckily for those prospects, I’ve built an objective model that isn’t swayed by certain biases. Rather, it analyzes scouting grades, and based on a weighting system that relies on stable aspects of … Continue reading Top 50 Undervalued MLB Prospects
Given the nature of this season, between the shortened schedule and the COVID-19 protocols in place, it was reasonable to expect there to be little action. Of course, certain front offices didn’t get the memo, as there were a fully moves made before the trade deadline. Now that the deadline is over, I’ll offer my thoughts on each trade, before looking at the overall performances … Continue reading Analyzing Every 2020 MLB Trade Deadline Deal: Shortened Season Didn’t Slow Down The Action