With free agency and the draft well in the rearview mirror, we’ve reached the “dead period” of the NFL offseason. That is, unless you play fantasy football. Rather than focus on which players are in the “best shape of their lives” and tracking training camp statistics, this is a critical time for the formulation and finalization of rankings. Competitive drafts are already starting to take … Continue reading Fantasy Football 2021 Quarterback Rankings + Projections
There is no more exciting time in the NFL, in my opinion, than the NFL Draft. Studies have shown that successful rosters are built through the draft, and it makes sense; the top players tend to be kept by their respective teams, and thus don’t often reach free agency. The surplus value of getting a cost-controlled player for four years, in addition to a fifth-year … Continue reading Changing The Way We Evaluate NFL QB Prospects
After playing general manager for each AFC team earlier in the week, it is now time to do the same for the NFC. My thoughts on the offseason and free agency may differ from some, so I’ll repeat what I stated in the AFC version: “Whereas the draft is much more complex and predicated on drafting as many valuable players as you can to keep … Continue reading NFL: Playing “GM” For Every NFC Team Ahead of Free Agency
With the 2020-2021 NFL season now over, it is officially the offseason! To be fair, there really isn’t an offseason in professional sports- activity happens year-round! As we get farther into the offseason, we will get to see how each front office goes about building their rosters. The best part about this? No two general managers are alike! Some will prioritize adding star talent through … Continue reading Stars or Depth? What Is The Best Way To Build an NFL Roster?
When the NFL season got underway on September 13th, there was a lot of skepticism that the season would play out, or that it would feel like a normal season. After all, players didn’t have normal offseason schedules, and having zero/limited fans in attendance was something we all had to get used to. Yet, we have made it! On Sunday, we will witness history on … Continue reading Super Bowl LV Model Projections
Something that is great about sports is how much of it can be quantified. We have plenty of metrics to evaluate players, and from there, can have a decent understanding of the value they provide for a team. However, the games aren’t just won the players; they need to be put in a position to succeed. In fact, given the importance of offensive and defensive … Continue reading NFL Study: Quantifying Offensive/Defensive Play-Calling
Once upon a time, quarterbacks were expected to be statues in the pocket. As the team’s signal-caller, your job was to simply pass the ball and execute a game plan. If you weren’t a pocket passer, there probably was a lot of momentum for you to move to a different position. This was a much simpler time of football analysis, but now, the game has … Continue reading NFL Deep Dive: How Important Is Mobility At The Quarterback Position?
The divisional round was one of the most hyped-up weekends of football in recent memory, and we were treated to some interesting games! The league’s best offense (Packers), as expected, was able to take down the league’s best defense (Rams). Then, in a matchup between two progressive organizations with young quarterbacks, the Bills flexed their roster depth with a primetime win over the Ravens at … Continue reading 2020-2021 NFL Conference Championship Game-By-Game Model Projections
Whereas baseball is filled with advanced statistics, other sports, particularly football, have lagged behind. For analysis, the common fan too often turns to unstable, flawed statistics such as yards gained/allowed, turnovers, and touchdowns, and, as a result, NFL players tend to be more polarizing than MLB players- analysts are using different variables to compare players. Luckily for us, Pro Football Focus’ grades and new Wins Above … Continue reading Fine-Tuning Wins Above Replacement To Better Capture an NFL Player’s $/Year Value
When assessing who the best quarterbacks are, people have their different ways of evaluation. Some look at intangibles and playoff production, while others look at statistics such as passing yards and touchdowns. However, both of those methods have a flawed foundation, so I’ve come up with a different way to evaluate quarterback production. Using eight advanced statistics from Pro Football Focus, I’ve established a formula to rank … Continue reading Ranking The Top 48 Quarterbacks From A Mathematical Perspective